{"id":1801,"date":"2026-04-09T04:21:47","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T04:21:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ipsport.com.ng\/?p=1801"},"modified":"2026-04-09T04:21:47","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T04:21:47","slug":"is-this-a-low-quality-race-for-champions-league-qualification-or-evidence-of-a-competitive-premier-league","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ipsport.com.ng\/?p=1801","title":{"rendered":"Is this a low-quality race for Champions League qualification, or evidence of a competitive Premier League?"},"content":{"rendered":"


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This season, the quality of the Premier League\u2019s Champions League race feels a little diluted.<\/p>\n

The barriers to entry are being lowered, with the Premier League having now secured an additional Champions League place based on the collective performance of its nine teams in Europe this season.<\/p>\n

That was also the case last season, but the fight for fifth felt more vigorous. Newcastle United pipped Aston Villa to the spot on the final day, finishing on 66 points and ahead on goal difference.<\/p>\n

That total would have been enough to secure fourth in four of the past 30 seasons. Just behind Villa, Forest finished seventh on 65 points, the highest total for that position in a 38-game season.<\/p>\n

The pace set by this season\u2019s contenders has been far more sluggish.<\/p>\n

Fifth place is currently occupied by Liverpool, who with 1.58 points per game are on course to record the lowest total for the position since Tottenham finished on 60 points in 2006-07. Last season, Brighton finished eighth with a higher points-per-game, while Liverpool\u2019s projected 60 points is only one more than Everton managed for 10th in 2020-21.<\/p>\n

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It would also be the lowest tally to secure Champions League qualification via their league position since, well, Liverpool, who finished fourth on that same 60 point total in 2003-04. It certainly worked out for them the following season.<\/p>\n

That Arne Slot\u2019s side, winless in their past three league games, are still clinging to this coveted position speaks to the stuttering form of Chelsea beneath them, who have taken just four points from the last 15 available.<\/p>\n

Watching these two traditional heavyweights slug it out has the feel of a drunken bar fight rather than a world-title bout, full of staggering movements and flailing arms, and it seems unjust that either will walk away with a precious Champions League place.<\/p>\n

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\n Could Brentford or Everton find themselves in the Champions League next season? (Alex Livesey\/Getty Images)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

But there is another, more positive, way to frame their struggles: evidence of a stronger Premier League mid-table. And this chasing pack might yet produce a late runner to snatch fifth from Chelsea and Liverpool. Brentford, who have never qualified for Europe, sit seventh and just three points off Liverpool, with Everton behind them on goal difference.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor Everton to even be in the mix for Europe is unbelievable,\u201d said manager David Moyes in his press conference after their 3-0 win over Chelsea, their last game before the international break.<\/p>\n

The graphic below shows points per game for each position this season (red dots), compared with every previous Premier League finish in that position (grey dots), with the small black lines representing the average. All of the top seven, including leaders Arsenal, are winning fewer points than is typical for their position, with the seven below them eating into their tallies and winning more than usual.<\/p>\n

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Even Bournemouth in 13th are just seven points off Liverpool, still clinging to a very slim chance of a Champions League place next season.<\/p>\n

It is the smallest gap ever between fifth and 13th at this stage of the season, with the graphic below showing that it is usually around 17 points after 31 matchdays. Three games ago, that gap was 12 points, but Liverpool\u2019s slide has opened the door for the Premier League\u2019s mid-table sides.<\/p>\n

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\u201cIf we keep going like this, next season we should be happy if we play Conference League,\u201d said midfielder Dominik Szoboszlai after Liverpool\u2019s 1-1 draw at home to Tottenham last month.<\/p>\n

Some might prefer a high-quality Champions League race between sides befitting the competition, but this confused scramble does offer greater variety.<\/p>\n

There was a period when Chelsea, Manchester United, Liverpool and Arsenal more or less monopolised the top four. Between 2005-06 and 2008-09, they qualified with at least a game to spare every season except 2006, when Arsenal edged ahead of Tottenham, after a Spurs side ravaged by illness lost 2-1 to West Ham on the final day. Since then, that stranglehold has loosened, with the top four changing every season except for in 2020-21.<\/p>\n

Bringing fifth place into the equation further shakes up the established Champions League order. It was always likely that this extra qualifying spot would lead to this kind of multi-team scramble. The Premier League table typically becomes more bunched up the further you go down it.<\/p>\n

The biggest gaps are at the head and tail of the standings. Titles are typically won by around seven points \u2014 13 of the past 20 have been decided before the final day \u2014 while second is usually comfortably clear of third. Teams at the bottom are fittingly described as marooned, finishing around six points behind 19th.<\/p>\n

But the gaps between neighbouring teams shrink with each position: they average four points between fourth and fifth, compared to just two between 10th and 11th.<\/p>\n

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Fifth place and a route into the Champions League should have been a straightforward get-out-of-jail-free card for either Liverpool or Chelsea.<\/p>\n

The fact it hasn\u2019t played out that way is testament to a competitive Premier League, where European adventures no longer feel like a distant dream for most.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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