Don't know who to bet on or select as the winner in the Divisional Round? This guide will help you look like an expert in the NFL playoffs
It is difficult to predict which team is going to win in the NFL in any game, and that task becomes more complicated by the time the playoffs roll around. In the postseason, the best teams meet year after year, so the margins tend to tighten and surprises can occur game by game.
For now, although no one can assure you who is going to win (although suddenly, there are several out there on networks who say the opposite), this guide should serve you more than anything as a list of common sense points to take into account when making your picks.
All of these rules are backed up with statistics, recent history and an eye toward what could happen this weekend. They are, furthermore, things that I have personally observed working for several years now, dating back to when my university friends and I did pools that, in those days, were still of dubious legality.
RULE #1 – Be careful of “rookie” QBs in the playoffs
Applies to: Bears, Patriots
For the first time this season, Caleb Williams He threw two interceptions in a game against the Packers. It's not critical, as he ultimately finished with 361 yards and led an impressive comeback (with the cooperation of Matt LaFleur) as Chicago won its first playoff game in the Ben Johnson era. But it would be very naïve to dismiss the bad and focus only on the good. Williams completed just 50 percent of his passes, a season-low 47.5 percent against the Eagles on Nov. 28.
And that was against some Packers who didn't have Micah Parsons. This week, Williams will face the Rams, a team that has allowed many points defensively since December, but is also extremely opportunistic in generating turnovers. Los Angeles' defense has generated seven turnovers in the last four games, including two against the Carolina Panthers last week.
On the other hand, we also saw one of the worst games of the campaign Drake Maye in a 16-3 victory over the Chargers. Maye was intercepted once and had two fumbles, but he found a way to lead his team to a victory.
This week, the level of difficulty increases enormously against the Texans, who have six consecutive games forcing at least one turnover to the opposing offense. Against the Steelers, they looked absolutely dominant. Despite having one of the lowest pressure percentages in the entire league, the Texans were the sixth team in the NFL with the most sacks. Against the Steelers, they did it seven times.
RULE #2 – There is always an uncomfortable visitor, identify it
Aplica para: Rams, 49ers, Texans, Bills
In the divisional round, the locals have a 13-7 record since 2021, being dominant every year except in 2022, when the visitors went 3-1. On that occasion, both number one seeded teams fell, when Cincinnati beat Tennessee and San Francisco went to Green Bay and conquered them. Additionally, the Rams beat Tampa Bay at Raymond James Stadium to complete that unusual shortlist.
What generally happens is that a visiting team accomplishes the task, and we must be attentive to that. Probability dictates that at least one visitor will make it (and maybe more), so who will it be this year?
The 49ers beat the Seahawks in Seattle during the regular season, but it was in Week 1 – although San Francisco has won eight of ten on the road this year, including last week's victory against the Eagles; The Texans ended up winning their last five road games in 2025, but only one was against a team that qualified for the playoffs, the Chargers; Rams in the Sean McVay era are 4-2 in the playoffs when playing on the road; and Bills won their first road game with Sean McDermott as coach, after having lost their first five.
RULE #3 – Be careful with “on fire” equipment
Applies to: Seahawks, Texans
The Jaguars finished the regular season with eight straight wins…and were defeated by the Bills in one in the Wild Card Round. But the Texans have won ten in a row, including the victory against the Steelers on Monday. That is, continued success is important to take into account, but it is not the only factor.
For example, the Seahawks currently have the longest streak in the NFC with seven straight wins, but that pace is perhaps interrupted by the bye week they had. It is important to analyze which teams are winning mostly because of skill and execution and not so much because of luck or having faced soft opponents.
Vince Lombardi said well: “Winning is a habit, unfortunately, losing is too.”
In November 1989, the San Francisco 49ers began an 18-game winning streak that lasted until November 1990. During that entire year, the 49ers won the Super Bowl and dominated the NFL conclusively. Fourteen years later, the New England Patriots dynasty started the season with a 2-2 record. They wouldn't lose again until Halloween… 2004. There were 21 consecutive victories, with Super Bowl XXXVIII as the icing on the cake, when the Pats beat the Panthers.
That is to say, history tells us that a strong team does look good to take everything.
RULE #4 – Remember the Bear Bryant Rule
Applies to: Seahawks, Texans, Broncos, Patriots
“The offense sells tickets, but the defense wins championships.” Today, the great former Alabama coach's saying has been modified to identify the offense as the one that wins games, but the defense's motto remains the same. Time and time again, NFL champions distinguish themselves by having defenses that show up in key moments.
It is no coincidence that they are four of the five best defenses by points allowed in this round. The fifth, the Eagles, were eliminated last week. But the prowess of teams like Seattle, Houston, Denver and New England on the defensive end cannot be ignored, especially with three of those teams playing at home this weekend.
On the other hand, only one team from the five worst in this category, the Chicago Bears, are still in the postseason. They face the Rams, one of the most powerful offenses in the league in the Divisional Round. Will it be enough to move forward?
RULE #5 – Beware of “fair weather” gear going into the cold
Applies to: Texans, Rams
The Texans and Rams mostly play in controlled conditions thanks to NRG Stadium, which has a dome, and SoFi, which has a retractable roof and enjoys the weather conditions of Southern California, where it rarely rains or is bitterly cold.
Last week, the Rams traveled to Charlotte against the Panthers, in a game that was also not demanding in terms of weather. Now, they will have to go to Soldier Field in Chicago, where “high” temperatures of 19 degrees Fahrenheit (-7 degrees Celsius) are expected. The Texans, who already braved the elements in Pittsburgh, go to Foxboro against the Patriots, where highs of 36 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) and a chance of freezing rain and even snow are expected.
Sometimes, no matter how good a team is, putting them in these types of conditions when they are not used to it tends to be something that balances the scales for the one who is acclimated.
RULE #6 – He who arrives healthier, arrives stronger
Applies to: Everyone, but watch out for the 49ers, Texans and Patriots
The 2025 season has been an up and down season for San Francisco in terms of injuries. Virtually every key player on both sides of the ball has missed games due to health issues. This week, the 49ers will be without George Kittle due to his Achilles tendon injury, but they will recover, apparently Fred Warnerthe heart of their defense that seemed to be lost the rest of the year. Blow for the offense, but gain for the defense.
The Texans, for their part, will try to recover Nico Collins for the next round, while the Patriots brought back Christian Gonzalezwho remains in the concussion protocol after the blow he suffered against the Chargers last Sunday. It is quite obvious to say it, but you have to be careful with choosing a team that has key players out for a duel as important as this week's.
RULE #7 – If you are not sure about something, avoid it
In the end, that is the simplest and most important thing to take into account. When done responsibly, betting serves to elevate the fun of watching a sporting event, and possibly win something in exchange for your knowledge and good instincts.
You will notice that sometimes the rules seem to conflict with each other, but in the end, one (or some) of the concepts will have greater influence over the others. It is up to you to choose what you feel will be the most important and what will define the destiny of each match.
