Patriots enter AFC Championship Game as favorites, plus Denver's Super Bowl odds plummet
Las NFL Conference Finals are already defined and the betting lines They are not what many expected before the season, or even before last weekend.
The New England Patriots opened as favorites by 4.5 points as visitors against Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game, while the Seattle Seahawks opened as 1.5-point favorites at home against the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Title Game, according to the lines of DraftKings. After the first bets, New England was up to -5.5 and Seattle was up to -2.5.
In the previous hypothetical lines, the Broncos They were 1.5-point favorites over the Patriots, but Your odds fell drastically following the news that quarterback Bo Nix He would miss the rest of the postseason due to a broken right ankle. The bookmakers consulted indicated that Bo Nix represents between five and seven points on the line.
“We're looking forward to seeing how these two defensive-minded teams square off in the AFC Championship Game and evaluating the impact it had.” Bo Nix in this team of Broncos throughout the year,” Caesars Sportsbook head of football Joey Feazel told ESPN. “We are also eager to see what expert bettors ultimately decide on this match.”
The experts' early bets could have influenced the Patriots to become even bigger favorites. John Murray, vice president of Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, said he was “surprised to see how big of a favorite New England had become (Sunday) afternoon.”
If the 5.5-point line holds, New England would be the biggest road favorite in a conference championship game since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970, according to ESPN Research.
The probabilities of the Broncos They also suffered a hard blow due to the injury of Bo Nix. Before Saturday, the Broncos they were +700 to win the Super Bowl and immediately after their win over the Buffalo Bills, they moved to +370, according to DraftKings odds. They rose to +650 immediately after the news of the injury of Bo Nixthen to +950 at the end of Saturday, before finally stabilizing at +1100. They would be the highest odds to win the Super Bowl entering the Conference Finals since the New York Giants (+1500) in 2008, who, interestingly, ended up winning it all that year.
Seahawks lead Super Bowl betting heading into season weekend Conference Finalswith +145, followed by the Rams with +225 and the Patriots with +255.
All of these teams began the season with little chance of winning; Denver and Los Angeles were at +2200 each, while New England and Seattle were at +6000 each. If they win the first two, they would be the teams with the highest preseason odds since the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles (+4000), and if they win the last two, they would be the teams with the highest preseason odds since the 2001 Patriots (+6000).
With many of the crowd's favorites for the Super Bowl already eliminated, sportsbooks have little to worry about, but a couple of major risks remain: BetMGM indicated the Seahawks are their only remaining carry, while DraftKings points to the Patriots as his biggest burden.
Information from David Purdum was used in the writing of this note.
