The first trophy of the English domestic season is up for grabs on Sunday — and one of the Premier League’s top two teams will be lifting it at Wembley.
Arsenal, top of the table, take on second-placed Manchester City in a Carabao Cup final that has long been viewed as having a significant knock-on effect on both teams’ hopes when they return to league action.
Arsenal are aiming to win a first major trophy since 2020 (unless you count the 2023 Community Shield), while Manchester City are looking to end their own relative drought, having failed to lift any silverware last year.
Arsenal are unbeaten against City in their past six meetings (stretching back to the 2022-23 season) and are still in contention to win all four competitions they are involved in this season.
For City, elimination from the Champions League this week means this has added importance, as they have one route fewer to a trophy.
Our Arsenal writer Amy Lawrence and her City counterpart Sam Lee discuss the key issues around the game.
How important would winning be for your club’s manager?
Amy: Have you seen Mikel Arteta’s face lately? Have you noticed how ferociously driven he is? There was a clip going around after Max Dowman’s goal of the dugout scenes with fantastic close-ups of Arsenal’s manager and, once the initial euphoria settled, Arteta’s face switched into intensity overdrive as he determinedly shouted, “VAMOSSSS”. My God he wants to win.
He wants this badly. He doesn’t need this as the gateway to other trophies. He needs this in a more simplistic way — to share that winning feeling with his players, staff and club. He has inculcated this sentiment into his dressing room that they have to get a reward for their efforts as soon as humanly possible.
Sam: Set against the rumours of a departure at the end of the season, or at least the idea that he is considering whether to see out the final year of his contract or not, we could be witnessing the final months of the Pep Guardiola era at City. In that respect, any trophy that can be won this season would have added sentimental value.
For Guardiola, he will know that what he has achieved at City will already speak for itself. Achievements like a 100-point season, a domestic treble, a ‘proper’ treble, four League Cups and four Premier League titles in a row were unthinkable when he arrived in England a decade ago, especially for him. But the way he has fallen in love with English domestic competitions, with their trips to old-fashioned stadiums and ‘welcoming’ fans, would mean that winning the League Cup again on Sunday would be very emotional, especially given he will have done it with a team that is largely new.
How will they approach this game?
Amy: Maybe the critics will be able to decry Arsenal as the worst, ugliest League Cup finalists ever, with an asterisk against their name for crimes against sport. Meanwhile, in the real world, Arteta has settled on a core team, and core approach, which is well known and has served them well so far this season. The back four play as if they detest conceding goals, Declan Rice and Martin Zubimendi patrol midfield, while there are a few more either/ors in the front section of the pitch. The most interesting pick is whether David Raya is selected or his deputy, Kepa Arrizabalaga, gets to continue in the League Cup.
Arsenal will try to control as much as they can against such a strong opponent, use set pieces if the chance arises, and express themselves through the starters and finishers in attack. They are in the habit of sharing the goals around rather than being too reliant on someone or other — their past 10 goals have come from nine different scorers.
Sam: Next question please. If I have to give a proper answer, I’m guessing he will go with more of the ‘controlled’ line-up he has plumped for in basically every game since Christmas, apart from when he uncharacteristically decided to try to attack Real Madrid in their own stadium.
That line-up means that predicting a Guardiola team at the moment is harder than ever, but given Arsenal’s threats I think it will be the 4-2-2-2 that has largely featured in 2026, and that plenty of physical players will be included. It may be Abdukodir Khusanov and Marc Guehi at centre-back, given Ruben Dias’ struggles in the past few games, and, fitness permitting, it could be a midfield of Rodri, Bernardo Silva, Nico O’Reilly and Jeremy Doku, with Erling Haaland and Antoine Semenyo up front. But who knows?
How will Sunday’s result affect the rest of the season?
Amy: Honestly? Not greatly. The narrative about a League Cup paving the way for greater things is convenient, but won’t be overplayed either way in Arsenal’s camp. They have done an impressive job so far in maintaining interest in multiple competitions, and they are acutely aware of the main prizes they wish for. That won’t be altered by this outcome. A win would be beautiful for confidence, and on the other side of the coin a defeat would have to be used to fuel even more desire to get over the line elsewhere. Arsenal will try to compartmentalise this once it is over, whatever happens. Ultimately, the Carabao Cup is unlikely to define their season.
Sam: It would certainly give them a boost after tough results in the Premier League and Champions League. The players know they put up a good fight in the circumstances against Real Madrid on Tuesday and, quality-wise, they are not too far off being a more threatening, consistent side. They will know their effort and performance with 10 men against Madrid bodes well, but they did not have the good result to go with it. If they can beat Arsenal then their belief should soar.
Who will be your club’s key player on the day?
Amy: Sorry to botch this answer and not pick a name but this season the team has been the star. It feels counterintuitive to pick out an individual, as Arsenal’s efforts have been built on the foundation of collective effort. There is a case for sharing the key status around the pillars holding up the base and spine of the team — the bonded defensive rocks of Gabriel and William Saliba, with Rice striding in midfield in front of them, make for a powerful foundation.
Further forward, given it is springtime — when Eberechi Eze spreads his wings — he could be tasked with providing the decisive sparkle.
Sam: Maybe Bernardo Silva. The Portuguese is incredibly influential at City and he will be determined to bounce back from the instinctive yet costly handball that meant he was sent off against Madrid. He just knows exactly what Guardiola wants on the pitch (apart from a game-changing red card, yes) and his role in midfield, popping up wherever needed to help others play better, will be as important as always. And as captain of the team, in a match that is likely to have some bad blood, he will set the tone.
Match predictions
Amy: Shhhh. No comment from here. This is a one-off 50/50 game which is up for grabs.
Sam: The whole thing about this season is that Arsenal are better than City at getting results come what may. So yeah.
