We are down to the final eight in the Champions League after a riveting round of 16 that saw an astonishing 68 goals scored across 16 matches.
Seven of the eight ties saw one team score at least four goals. Two teams scored eight while Bayern Munich hit double figures against Atalanta on aggregate. We don’t know if the quarter-finals will be as explosive, but we do know that they will provide us with some classic matchups.
Throughout this Champions league campaign, The Athletic’s projections — powered by Opta — have assessed each team’s chances of making it out of the league phase and each knockout round.
So here, with just eight storied clubs remaining, we rank their chances of lifting the famous trophy in Budapest on May 30.
8) Sporting CP
Cards on the table, there is an argument to be made for our projections underestimating Sporting.
We backed Bodo/Glimt to beat them in the round of 16 despite being given a 37 per cent chance of making it past the reigning Portuguese champions after the draw. A 3-0 home win in Bodo increased that to an 87 per cent chance of making it through.
Sporting defied the odds (literally) to take the match to extra time and score two more to end the fairytale with a 5-0 win on the night. Unfortunately, their prize for doing so was a quarter-final against Arsenal.
Our projections give them just a 21 per cent chance of making it past a team they have beaten just once in seven meetings, scoring nine goals and conceding 15. It would take a Herculean effort from a team that does have stars in Goncalo Inacio, Morten Hjulmand, Maximiliano Araujo and Luis Suarez to defeat the best team in Europe.
Sporting produced a monumental comeback against Bodo/Glimt in the second leg (Gualter Fatia/Getty Images)
7) Atletico Madrid
The attacking firepower Atletico possess is scary, but they can also look very vulnerable defensively, a marked change from Diego Simeone’s previous years in charge.
A desperate Tottenham Hotspur ran them ragged to win the second leg 3-2 after self-imploding to hand Atletico a 5-2 advantage after the first leg and Bodo beat them 2-1 in Madrid. Barcelona, who possess more quality across the board than either of those teams, will pose a challenge to a team trying to get into the last four for the first time since making two finals and a semi-final in four seasons between 2014 and 2017.
Our projections duly give them just a 34 per cent of making it past Hansi Flick’s side.
There are reasons to be positive, though. Across that four-season run, Atletico twice eliminated Barcelona, even seeing off the ‘MSN’ triumvirate of Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez and Neymar Jr in 2016.
Most importantly, beating Spurs meant they inherited their league-phase home advantage, which ensures a second leg in Madrid. Having beaten Barcelona 4-0 in Madrid in the Copa del Rey semi-finals, they will be confident of overturning any deficit or holding on to any lead they bring back from the Camp Nou for the second leg.
6) Liverpool
The 4-0 thrashing of Galatasaray should instil some confidence in Arne Slot’s team, who have enjoyed very few comprehensive victories in 2025-26. But even the most optimistic fans on the red half of Merseyside will be concerned about facing Paris Saint-Germain at this stage of the season.
There is scar tissue from just over a year ago when Ousmane Dembele scored at Anfield and set PSG on their way to the quarter-finals via a penalty shootout, and eventual Champions League glory. Watching PSG thrash Chelsea 8-2 on aggregate while dragging them all over the place will not have soothed those wounds, either.
Liverpool’s Galatasaray win was promptly followed by a 2-1 league defeat to Brighton, continuing a trend that has plagued their campaign. Their 5-1 win at Eintracht Frankfurt in September was followed by successive defeats. Their 3-0 win at Marseille in January was instantly succeeded by a 3-2 defeat at Bournemouth. They beat West Ham 5-2 in February but then lost 2-1 to Wolves.
Our projections give Liverpool a reasonable-looking 44 per cent chance of making it past PSG, who they beat 1-0 at the Parc des Princes last season a week before the Anfield reverse, courtesy of an inspired Alisson performance in goal.
Liverpool found some form against Galatasaray, but can they do the same against the European champions? (Michael Regan/Getty Images)
5) Real Madrid
Alvaro Arbeloa became the first Madrid manager to win each of his first four knockout games in the competition, seeing off Jose Mourinho and Pep Guardiola in those matches. He has got the 15-time European champions playing to their strengths with a simple system that prioritises individual expression within a set structure.
While Manchester City threatened them even after going down to 10 men at the Etihad, it was the kind of open game Madrid have often thrived in in the Champions League. The boundless athleticism of Federico Valverde, Aurelien Tchouameni, Vinicius Junior and Kylian Mbappe, among others, along with the technical skill of Arda Guler, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Brahim Diaz, make that possible.
But Bayern will pose the biggest test yet — a well-drilled unit capable of shutting teams down and destroying them too. Madrid could also be without Thibaut Courtois — along with confirmed absentee Rodrygo — for at least the first leg.
But this is a rivalry in which they have had the upper hand in recent meetings. Madrid ditched Bayern out of the competition at the semi-final stage in 2023-24, 2017-18, and 2013-14, and in the quarter-finals in 2016-17.
Our projections give them only a 40 per cent chance of making it through but ‘Champions League’ Madrid are a unique team — Bayern, of all opponents, will be well aware of that.
Few teams enjoy getting up close and personal with Real Madrid in the Champions League (Carl Recine/Getty Images)
4) Barcelona
An eventual 7-2 scoreline in the second leg may have flattered Barcelona given Newcastle United were on an even footing with them for nearly 75 per cent of the tie. But this has not been uncommon under Flick. When things click and the team shifts into gear, they overwhelm opponents, and the goals tend to flow at a frightening pace, knocking opponents to the floor and keeping them there.
That has not been the case much this season, though, with fatigue from a hectic 2024-25 and injuries to the playing squad preventing them from gathering momentum. But the Newcastle win — alongside a 5-2 thrashing of Sevilla days before that and a hard-fought 1-0 win over Rayo Vallecano before the break — could finally kickstart their campaign.
Pedri is back to full fitness, Robert Lewandowski is back among the goals and Lamine Yamal is… well, Lamine Yamal. Add in the eventual returns from injury of Frenkie de Jong, Jules Kounde and Alejandro Balde, and it is understandable why our projections give them the second-best chances of making the last four at 66 per cent.
While the 4-0 loss to Atletico in the Copa del Rey will sting, Barcelona have beaten them by a combined 6-1 at the Camp Nou. They will also play Simeone’s side three times in 10 days: April 4 in La Liga and April 6 and 14 in the Champions League.
3) Paris Saint-Germain
It’s March and PSG are a force to be reckoned with again — the sense of deja vu from 2025 will not be lost on the remaining seven teams.
The win over Chelsea saw Luis Enrique’s side at their ruthless best, punishing miscues and scoring eight times from an expected goals tally of just 2.1. The finishes were excellent but the fluidity in their attacking moves, facilitated by basically everybody except the centre-backs moving into whatever spaces they wanted, was a joy to watch.
Ousmane Dembele, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Bradley Barcola all look back to their sharpest. Fabian Ruiz is still out but Vitinha, Joao Neves and Warren Zaire-Emery are driving a capable midfield, while Nuno Mendes can terrorise full-backs on one end and lock up wingers on the other.
Acoording to our projections, PSG trail Barcelona in the odds to reach the semi-finals (56 vs 66 per cent) and win it all (12 vs 16 per cent). But their modern-day pedigree keeps them marginally ahead.
Can PSG become the first team other than Real Madrid to retain the European Cup since Milan in 1990? (Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
2) Bayern Munich
Bayern are the best attacking side left in the Champions League and duly pummelled Atalanta 10-1 in the round of 16.
Harry Kane has been arguably the world’s best player in 2025-26, racking up 48 goals in just 40 club games. Michael Olise leads Europe’s top five leagues in assists with 17, adding 11 goals to that mix too. Luis Diaz has been a brilliant foil too, while Serge Gnabry is enjoying yet another renaissance.
Jamal Musiala, Lennart Karl and Nicolas Jackson round out an attacking unit that can hurt defences in every way possible.
Bayern have a solid back line too and have been creative with their out-of-possession work, with their players covering for each other admirably. Dayot Upamecano, Konrad Laimer and Jonathan Tah have been the team’s unsung stars.
Michael Olise has been arguably the most creative force in European football this season (Marco BERTORELLO / AFP via Getty Images)
Exorcising the ghosts of past losses to Real Madrid is a top priority. Our projections give Bayern a 60 per cent chance of making the last four, but it is hardly ever that straightforward against Madrid, who will aim to make this game as transitional as possible. Bayern have the pace in attack to make them pay but will their defence be able to hang on against Mbappe, Vinicius and company?
We are coming up to six years since their last treble in 2019-20 under Flick, which came seven years after their first in 2012-13 under Jupp Heynckes. With the league title wrapped up and the team into the German cup semi-finals for the first time since winning it in 2020, could a third treble in 14 years be on the cards?
1) Arsenal
Their reliance on defensive solidity and corners may ruffle a few feathers, but Arsenal remain top of our projections with a 30 per cent chance of winning the Champions League.
The draw fell in their favour after topping the league phase in the way Liverpool must have been hoping for in 2024-25 when they did the same. Bayer Leverkusen posed a stiff challenge in Germany but fell 2-0 at the Emirates despite recording more possession (58 vs 42 per cent). Arsenal have a 79 per cent chance of defeating quarter-final opponents Sporting, which would pit them against Barcelona or Atletico.
Mikel Arteta’s side will need to adapt a little in Europe, especially regarding corners, with Champions League officiating more stringent than in England. They also need to move past their only knockout loss of the season in the Carabao Cup final against Manchester City in which they looked bereft of ideas in possession and were outfoxed without it.
Arsenal can surely be counted on to solve their out-of-possession issues, given it is the area Arteta has improved them the most in during his time in north London. Eberechi Eze suffering a calf injury that will rule him out for at least a month is a concern, but Martin Odegaard’s return from an injury of his own should add some much-needed verve and creativity.
