After losing Super Bowl LVIII to the Kansas City Chiefs in February, there were high hopes the San Francisco 49ers could go one better this year and win their first NFL championship since 1994.
But while the Chiefs, the Buffalo Bills, the Detroit Lions and the Philadelphia Eagles have clinched their postseason spots with regular-season games to spare, the Niners are in danger of missing outnot helped by injuries to key players such as Christian McCaffrey, Nick Bosa and Brandon Aiyuk.
A big win over the Chicago Bears on week 14, however, may have put some wind in their sails.
Ahead of the week 15 Thursday Night Football game at home to the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco have a couple of reasons for encouragement.
Firstly, unlike elsewhere, no team has run away with NFC West. With four games left to play, the 49ers (6-7) are two victories behind the division leaders, the Seattle Seahawks (8-5). Although catching and then overtaking them will be a huge ask, it isn’t completely out of the question.
Secondly, the Niners know a win on Thursday will allow them to draw level with the Rams (7-6)who are currently second in NFC West. Kyle Shanahan’s team also still have to face the fourth team in the division, the Arizona Cardinalsin week 18, which will give them another opportunity to progress in the standings.
How can 49ers clinch the playoffs by winning NFC West?
Realistically, though, San Francisco will probably have to win their final four games to have a chance of topping NFC West. They also include a matchup against the Lions, who are 12-1 for the season and have arguably been the most impressive team in NFL this year.
If they do that, though, they will end up with a 10-7 record and will qualify for the playoffs provided the Seahawks finish no better than 1-3, the Rams no better than 2-2 and the Cardinals no better than 3-1.
Shanahan’s men could also top the division with a 3-1 finishalthough they would they be dependent on their NFC West opponents falling completely out of form (i.e. Seahawks finishing no better than 0-4, Rams no better than 1-3, Cardinals no better than 2-2).
Should any of the four finish level, tiebreakers would then come into the equationwhich could differ depending on the teams and results in upcoming games.
How the 49ers can qualify for the wild card round
The 49ers could also reach the playoffs via the wild card roundwhich looks likely to be a similarly challenging proposition.
To do that, they must finish the regular season with the fifth, sixth or seventh best record (they are 11th at present). The teams currently in those positions are the Minnesota Vikings (11-2)the Green Bay Packers (9-4) and the Washington Commanders (8-5).
However, the Californians are also playing catchup with the eighth-placed Rams (7-6), the ninth-placed Atlanta Falcons (6-7) and the Cardinals (6-7).
As mentioned, the Niners have the chance to defeat the Rams and the Cardinals in the upcoming weeks, while they would almost certainly have to finish the regular season with a better overall record than the Falcons due to Atlanta’s superior division and conference records (as it stands).
However, catching the Commanders is the toughest task. To be guaranteed a wild card spot, San Francisco probably need to win their four remaining games to get to 10-7 and hope:
– the Commanders finish no better than 1-3 (for a 9-8 overall record)
– the Rams finish no better than 2-2 (for a 9-8 overall record)
– the Falcons finish no better 3-1 (for a 9-8 overall record)
– the Cardinals finish no better than 3-1 (for a 9-8 overall record)
Another scenario is that the 49ers end the season with three victories and a defeat for a 9-8 overall record. In that case, they would need:
– the Commanders to finish no better than 0-4 (for an 8-9 overall record)
– the Rams to finish no better than 1-3 (for an 8-9 overall record)
– the Falcons to finish no better 2-2 (for an 8-9 overall record)
– the Cardinals to finish no better than 2-2 (for an 8-9 overall record)
Ending the season with three or four victories from their last four games could also bring a series of complex tiebreakers into the equation, again depending on which teams they finished level with.
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