Although home-field advantage is seen as one of the most significant boosts in the NFL playoffshosting a Wild Card game is far from a guarantee of going through to the Divisional playoffs. Since the 2002 NFL season, there have been 92 Wild Card games, of which 38 have been won by teams that went into the round in the position of underdogs.
Actually, the likelihood of a Wild Card team beating the odds is 41.3%, and this takes into account the fact that there were no upsets in 2003, 2006, 2012, and 2016 at this stage of the playoffs.
The wild card places this season go to the LA Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos in the AFC, and the Minnesota Vikings, Washington Commanders and Green Bay Packers in the NFC.
Wild Card underdog winners by season
| Season | AFC | NFC |
|---|---|---|
| 2002 | Falcons | |
| 2003 | ||
| 2004 | Jets | Rams, Vikings |
| 2005 | Buccaneers, Panthers | |
| 2006 | ||
| 2007 | Giants | |
| 2008 | Chargers | |
| 2009 | Jets, Ravens | Cardinals |
| 2010 | Jets | Packers, Seahawks |
| 2011 | Broncos | |
| 2012 | ||
| 2013 | Chargers, Colts | Saints |
| 2014 | Ravens | |
| 2015 | Packers | |
| 2016 | ||
| 2017 | Titans | Rams |
| 2018 | Chargers, Colts | Eagles |
| 2019 | Titans | Seahawks, Vikings |
| 2020 | Browns | Rams |
| 2021 | Ravens, Cleveland | Tampa, Rams |
| 2022 | 49ers | |
| 2023 | Cowboys, Giants | |
| 2024 | Packers | |
| 2025 | ??? | ??? |
Which Wild Card teams have won the Super Bowl?
In total, seven teams have emerged as Wild Card entries into the postseason before going all the way to winning the Super Bowl. In the period assessed above, this involves the 2005 Steelers, the 2007 Giants, the 2010 Packers, and the 2020 Buccaneers. Prior to that we saw similar glories from the Oakland Raiders in 1980, the Denver Broncos in 1997 and the Baltimore Ravens in 2000.
The case of the Giants is of particular note as their victory over New England prevented the Patriots from pulling off only the second perfect season in NFL history, after the 1972 Miami Dolphins. Green Bay’s triumph too is notable as it ended a 14-year Super Bowl drought at Lambeau Field by beating the Steelers 31-25.
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Other teams that warrant honorable mentions are the 2013 Colts, who achieved the second-biggest comeback in playoffs history by overturning a 28-point deficit against the Chiefsand the Titans, who in 2019 kicked off their playoffs campaign with a 20-13 victory over the Patriots in what would turn out to be Tom Brady’s final game for New England.
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