Welcome back to The Athletic’s title-race tracker, where our data and tactics writers take a weekly look at the key trends behind an enthralling battle for the Premier League crown.
Last week, we dug deep into Arsenal’s defensive solidity and a new-look Manchester City, embracing end-to-end football and more direct attacking play as they look to close the gap on the leaders from north London.
That said, Pep Guardiola’s side have since dropped precious points with a 2-2 draw at Nottingham Forest, leaving us with a drastically different outlook on the top two.
How have City’s chances of winning a seventh Premier League title under Guardiola suffered? And what have midweek Champions League games taught us about the run-in? Allow The Athletic to run through the numbers.
What has changed since the last gameweek?
A disappointing draw with Nottingham Forest saw City twice surrender a lead and relinquish the luxury of having the title race in their hands. Now seven points behind Arsenal, they must beat Mikel Arteta’s men in mid-April, and hope their rivals drop points elsewhere before the end of the season to make up the gap.
Forest were clinical, with two excellent finishes from Morgan Gibbs-White and Elliot Anderson landing hammer blows to City’s title hopes. That was despite the home side boasting a field tilt of 84 per cent — their highest share in a Premier League game this season — pointing to their territorial dominance throughout the contest.
It’s one that City should have won comfortably based on the pattern of play. Simulate the game one million times, and with respective expected goals (xG) values of 2.2 and 0.97, the average team in City’s position would be expected to win it 63.9 per cent of the time, an estimate that does not account for the superior attacking quality at their disposal.
Meanwhile, Arsenal ground out a 1-0 victory over Brighton & Hove Albion in a match that was low on goalmouth action. At this stage of the season, Arteta will not mind one bit.
Points on the board are all that matter, and Arsenal fans may look back on this game with a wry smile, given that their single goal came from their only shot in the first half.
As we can see from the xG flow chart below, Saka’s effort barely registered as Arsenal created little before the hour mark, a low shot that squirmed through the legs of Bart Verbruggen in the Brighton goal.
Notwithstanding the controversy that swirled around Arsenal’s performance after Brighton head coach Fabian Hurzeler complained of time-wasting, Arteta’s side put themselves firmly back in the driving seat with victory.
Who is looking stronger?
Despite those complaints, there is little doubt Arsenal are the strongest and most consistent side in the country, having suffered just three defeats in 46 games across all competitions this season.
Their rock-solid form is underpinned by defensive grit, the ability to control games without the ball due to their physicality, concentration, and tactical organisation to stop sweeping opposition attacks at the source.
Non-penalty expected goal difference (xGD) is a strong indicator of underlying performance, illustrating how many goal-scoring opportunities a team generates against how many they concede. As we can see from the table below, no team really comes close to Arsenal in that regard, a side that consistently create more chances than their opponents.
City, as expected, are not far behind. But while their fluid rotations and neat passing sequences continue to be easy on the eye, Guardiola’s side still cannot shake their vulnerability in conceding goals from counter-attacks. They fell foul to another against Forest last week, with City’s rate of 0.9 shots per 90 minutes conceded via fast breaks this campaign being their highest in the last seven seasons.
As we can see from the graphic below, City were at their most open to counter-attacks midway through last season, allowing an alarming number of chances on the break as opposition teams were able to power through City’s midfield — built for possession and intricate build-up play — whenever they stole the ball.
Guardiola looked to remedy the situation with a tweak of system, fighting fire with fire as he introduced athletic January signings into a more transitional approach that saw his side cede control of possession in exchange for more running power in midfield.
This year, City have been happier to roll with the punches, able to rely on Erling Haaland, Antoine Semenyo and Gianluigi Donnarumma to come up with match-winning moments in end-to-end games. But that approach can backfire, particularly as the number of opportunities they concede continues to creep up.
This is not the ominous, all-controlling City of old, and while they have the firepower to blow any team away on their day, a more open approach means they are more prone to slip-ups than we tend to expect.
Any tactical notes?
City’s opening goal against Nottingham Forest came via Rayan Cherki’s cutback for Semenyo to finish first time. That takes City’s tally to 11 goals scored via cutback chances this season, and continues to be a threatening weapon they employ to unlock a stubborn defence.
The team with the most cutback chances created in the league? That would be Arteta’s side, with Arsenal edging ahead of Forest with 62 in total, of which seven have been scored.
It might well be a crucial method of attack in their next league game at home against Everton, with David Moyes’ side likely to stay compact in a deeper block for long periods. Moving the opposition around and finding the space behind with a pass pulled back might be the key to unlocking proceedings.
Sure, there are set pieces too — but let it be known how strong Everton are defending dead-ball situations. Curiously, only rock-bottom Wolves have a better record than Everton’s 2.6 goals conceded per 100 set pieces in the Premier League this season.
Who has the tougher upcoming schedule?
Plenty of teams have so much to play for at this stage of the season, so even a perceived ‘easier’ game can provide a false sense of security. On paper, City’s trip to relegation-battling West Ham United is favourable, but Nuno Espirito Santo’s side look resurgent in recent weeks, and could cause City issues on the counter-attack; only four Premier League teams have scored more since the Portuguese was appointed in September.
If we do lean on the numbers, City would edge it as a marginally easier schedule in the next five league games, based on Opta’s ‘power rankings’ to denote opposition strength.
Of course, fixtures outside the Premier League might influence the approach in domestic competition. Both sides are still fighting in the Champions League and FA Cup, while the blockbuster Carabao Cup final is set up perfectly at the end of the month — with Arteta and Guardiola battling for silverware in the hope that victory might provide the other with a body blow that could ripple into league form at the business end of the season.
What does the Opta supercomputer say?
The signs are overwhelmingly positive for Arsenal fans, with Opta giving them a 93 per cent likelihood of lifting their first league trophy in over two decades.
Things might get twitchy on the pitch and in the stands, particularly if City do beat Arteta’s side at the Etihad, but Opta’s model doesn’t take emotion and psychology into account.
From a purely objective point of view, Arsenal remain the outright favourites to hold onto their position at the top of the pile.
